You went to look at a new laptop. The one you were eyeing last fall is now three hundred dollars more.

You're not imagining it.

The price of computers has been quietly climbing for about a year, and analysts are now projecting it'll keep going. The reasons are worth understanding, because some of them are temporary and some of them aren't, and that matters for when you decide to replace what you've got.

This week I'm going to walk through the realistic options for anyone who's been putting off a new computer. But first: why this is happening at all.

Reason one: AI is eating the memory supply

The biggest single driver is something most people have never thought about.

Inside every computer, phone, and tablet is something called memory (RAM). It's what lets your computer hold open programs and switch between them. There are only three companies in the world that make most of it: Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron.

Until recently, those three companies sold most of their memory to consumer-device makers: laptops, phones, gaming consoles, that kind of thing.

But starting in 2024, AI happened. The big tech companies (Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon) started building enormous data centers to run AI models, and those data centers need a different kind of memory called HBM. It's the same companies making it. They've shifted huge portions of their production over.

The result: the memory that goes into normal computers is in short supply. Prices have roughly doubled over the last twelve months. Some computer brands are now selling pre-built machines with no RAM installed, because they can't reliably source enough to ship.

A computer industry research firm called IDC is projecting that average PC prices will be up about 8% this year. Some laptop categories are projected to rise as much as 40%.

This one is not going away in the short term. AI demand for memory is expected to keep growing through at least 2027.

Reason two: tariffs

Most computers and parts are made overseas. New trade tariffs added over the past year have raised the cost of imports across the board. This shows up in the sticker price.

This is more of a moving target than the memory shortage. Tariffs can change. But for the moment, they're a real factor.

Reason three: the Windows 10 wave

Microsoft ended security updates for Windows 10 in October. A lot of people have a Windows 10 computer, and a meaningful portion of them physically can't run Windows 11 (the hardware requirements changed, and older machines were left out).

That created a surge of people in the market for a new PC at the same time. When demand jumps and supply is already tight, prices go up. Basic economics.

This one will fade. Most of the people who needed to upgrade because of Windows 10 will do it within the next year. But right now, today, that wave is part of why everything costs more.

What this means for you

If you've been putting off a new computer, the math has changed.

The "wait a little longer and prices will come down" instinct that's worked for thirty years isn't reliable right now. Memory shortages are pushing prices the other way for at least the next year, and the Windows 10 buying pressure isn't going away until most of those holdouts move.

That doesn't mean panic-buy a computer. It means make the decision deliberately instead of by accident.

There are really only four serious options for someone whose current computer is showing its age:

1. Keep your current Windows 10 PC. Enroll in Microsoft's paid security update program for one more year of protection.
2. Buy a refurbished Windows 11 PC: the sweet spot for most people right now, and the only path I'm going to talk about that doesn't get more expensive every quarter.
3. Switch to a Mac: right for some people, wrong for more people than you'd think. We'll talk through it honestly.
4. Put Linux on the computer you already own: the underdog option, but viable for a specific kind of user.

I'm covering each of these in detail this week, one per day. By Friday you should know which path is yours.

Tomorrow: the Windows 10 question

If you're on Windows 10, tomorrow's post is the one you need most. Support officially ended last October. Most readers I've talked to know that something happened but aren't sure what it means for them. We'll fix that.

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If you don't even know what's in the computer you have (what year it is, what version of Windows it's running, how much memory it has), that's the first thing to find out before deciding. A quick remote session covers all of that, plus a recommendation.

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